Permafrost, a popular buzzword in the current discussion of global warming, is the layer of ice that exists beneath the surface of soil in Arctic regions. It appeared on the national radar during the last year’s presidential campaign, and stuck due to the negative connotations that it carries – once the ice begins to thaw as temperatures above it rise, a chain reaction begins that makes for rather unsettling theater.
The Economist published a feature on the term today, illustrating the dangers of what scientists may believe happen once the thaw becomes more pronounced: “As the permafrost thaws, bacteria start chewing up the organic matter it contains. This releases yet more carbon dioxide, as well as methane, another greenhouse gas, which has 25 times the warming potential of CO2.”
Some estimates put the total carbon trapped beneath this layer as nearly double of what currently exists in the atmosphere. And as the scientific community struggles to come to a greater understanding of the frozen tundra and the permafrost beneath it, global temperatures continue to rise. Therefore, immediate action is paramount.
A new study being led by Breck Bowden of the University of Vermont in Burlington in collaboration with a group of top international scientists, will collect data and weigh the impact of the thawing permafrost global warming. The research will measure the potential carbon emissions caused by the bacteria inside the frost and its immediate effect on coastal and hillside communities which may be in danger.
The Economist reports on the scope of the study: “the [research] team will…try to work out how the development of features such as “retrogressive thaw slumps” and “active-layer detachments” (different ways in which thawing permafrost can cause a hillside to slip) are associated with the local climate, geology and vegetation. They will look, too, at the amount of ice in the ground, and the temperature and the moisture of the soil. All these data will be fed into computer models which, the researchers hope, will allow them to develop an automated way of predicting where and when new features will form, and to monitor them when they appear.”
Given that the project will take almost five years to complete, at which point the permafrost situation will undoubtedly be more pronounced, this research needs to be accompanied by short term solutions that can be implemented now. While this study is no doubt crucial, the dialogue it represents needs to reach the level of the general population to be truly effective. Temporarily setting aside scientific rigor and communicating these ideas to the public in a relatable way is essential to making the kind of progress this situation requires.